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  • 17:12 - 30.07.2010 News >> Latest

     Hamas Probe Leads to American FirmsAmerican investigators, cooperating in a probe of the assassination of a Palestinian leader in Dubai, have identified a handful of U.S.-based companies believed to have been used to transfer money to suspects in the case.Read Article    

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  • 16:55 - 30.07.2010 News >> Latest

     Al Gore will not be prosecuted over masseuse allegations Al Gore, the former Vice President, will not be prosecuted over allegations by a masseuse that he groped and assaulted her in his Oregon hotel room in 2006, the county prosecutor has confirmed. Read Article    

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     Facebook rage of Wikileaks suspect Bradley Manning Exclusive: Prime suspect in Afghan war leaks rages against US Army.  Read Article     

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     Arizona immigration law blocked by judge in temporary victory for Obama Ruling marks success for Obama administration to maintain federal control of immigration policy  Read Article    

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  • 10:52 - 29.07.2010 News >> Latest

     Britain to be the biggest country in Europe by 2050 Official forecast predicts that Britain's population will swell from 62.2 million to 77 million - an increase of 24 per cent - overtaking both France and Germany. Read Article    

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  • 04:46 - 29.07.2010 News >> Latest

     Drug Use, Poor Discipline Afflict Afghan ArmyThe U.S. strategy for leaving Afghanistan is heavily dependent on building capable Afghan military and police forces that can take over, but U.S. soldiers complain of a trigger-happy attitude, general carelessness and the use of drugs within those forces. Read Article    

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  • 04:28 - 29.07.2010 News >> Latest

      Taxes: A Defining IssueBarack Obama knows taxes define worldview. The GOP should offer voters an alternative.Read Opinion 

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  • 03:51 - 29.07.2010 News >> Latest

     Ruling Against Arizona Is a Warning for Other StatesBy JULIA PRESTON A federal judge in Arizona on Wednesday broadly vindicated the Obama administration’s high-stakes move to challenge that state’s tough immigration law and to assert the primary authority of the federal government over state lawmakers in immigration matters. The ruling by Judge Susan R. Bolton, in a lawsuit against Arizona brought on July 6 by the Justice Department, blocked central provisions of the law from taking effect while she finishes hearing the case. But in taking the forceful step of holding up a statute even before it was put into practice, Judge Bolton previewed her opinions on the case, indicating that the federal government was likely to win in the end on the main points. The decision by Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. to throw the federal government’s weight against Arizona, on an issue that has aroused passions among state residents, has irritated many state governors, and nine states filed papers supporting Arizona in the court case. But Judge Bolton found that the law was on the side of the Justice Department in its argument that many provisions of the Arizona statute would interfere with federal law and policy. Gov. Jan Brewer said the state would appeal the decision. Although Judge Bolton’s ruling is not final, it seems likely to halt, at least temporarily, an expanding movement by states to combat illegal immigration by making it a state crime to be an immigrant without legal documents and by imposing new requirements on state and local police officers to enforce immigration law. “This is a warning to any other jurisdiction” considering a…

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  • 20:05 - 28.07.2010 News >> Latest

     Al Gore questioned over sexual assault allegations Police question former vice-president over claims by masseuse. Read Article   

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  • 19:36 - 28.07.2010 News >> Latest

     Clooney's girlfriend named in sex and drugs scandal Elisabetta Canalis named in scandal involving high-class prostitutes Read Article    

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RealClearPolitics/ Latest Polls - Some McCain Movement Print E-mail

 
Guardian/UK- GOP scares voters, but not as intended. Print E-mail

The Republicans have lifted the lid off their rightwing id

Now McCain's supporters are casting Obama as anti-American. This may well scare voters, but not the way they mean to

A year or two ago, if you'd told me that Barack Obama would be leading John McCain by a seemingly comfortable margin with two weeks to go and asked me what, in their desperation, the Republicans would be talking about to try and scare my fellow Americans into voting against him, I'd have said race. After all, Republicans have race-baited in one form or other in most of our presidential contests since Richard Nixon's time, so it would have seemed impossible to me that they'd miss the chance to do so at a time when Democrats had actually gone to the trouble of nominating an African-American candidate.

It's true that we're hearing racial-code talk here and there. But the main fear tactic being employed now is something else. It's that Obama and his associates - and for that matter his supporters and even the regions of the country that he's destined to carry - are anti-American.'
Last Friday, in North Carolina, Sarah Palin told a rally that she was proud to be "with all of you hard-working, very patriotic, um, very, um, pro-America areas of this great nation". She means here of course that there are anti-American areas of America, and they are where the liberals live, and the people there are voting for Mr Anti-America.

This was especially interesting coming from a woman whose husband, Todd Palin, was until just six years ago an enrolled member of a rightwing fringe political party that wanted the state of Alaska to secede from the US. But if you understand rightwing logic, then you'd know that Mr Palin had no choice but to join the Alaska Independence party in 1995, because by that time the America he thought he knew and loved had been brought to ruin by the liberals and socialists and America-haters. See?

Likewise, earlier this month, Joe McCain, the brother of John, said that Alexandria and Arlington, the two major cities in the northern Virginia suburbs that lie just across the Potomac River from Washington, were "communist country" as far as he was concerned. His brother lives in Arlington when in the nation's capital for work, and his brother's campaign is headquartered there as well, but never mind. A McCain spokeswoman offered a wan apology at the time, but lo and behold, just last Saturday a different McCain spokes-woman said on television that while Obama would perform well in northern Virginia, "the rest of the state - real Virginia if you will - I think will be very responsive to Senator McCain's message". This did not seem a planned one-liner. The spokeswoman made the fatal error of saying what she actually thinks. Republican Virginia equals real Virginia. Democratic Virginia is alien and impure.

Do you folks do this sort of thing in Britain? I know there's something about the chap on the Clapham omnibus who's supposed to represent some kind of middling everyman. And I know you've got your xenophobes just like we do. But trust me. You don't have a right wing that's anything like our right wing.

This point was proved most dramatically by a woman named Michele Bachmann, a member of Congress from Minnesota. In an interview last Friday on Hardball, a leading US cable talk show, host Chris Matthews asked Bachmann whether Obama worried her. "Absolutely. I'm very concerned that he may have anti-American views," she said. He asked her what she thought distinguished liberal from hard left from anti-American. If she maintains such distinctions in her mind, she refused to acknowledge them. Then, finally, Matthews - who deftly fed her the rope to hang herself - asked her how many members of the US Congress held, in her view, anti-American views.

It's been almost a two-year campaign. There have been moments we've thought of as memorable, only to see the tide of events erase their mark from the sand. Bachmann's answer, however, will live imperishably: "What I would say - what I would say is that the news media should do a penetrating exposé and take a look. I wish they would. I wish the American media would take a great look at the views of the people in Congress and find out, are they pro-America or anti-America? I think people would love to see an exposé like that."

Before we go any further - who is this Bachmann? She's a first-term backbencher from exurban Minneapolis who says the Lord told her to run for Congress. She declared herself "a fool for Christ" in 2006 when she announced her candidacy. By all accounts she's down with the whole rightwing Christian package: immigrants bring disease and pestilence, homosexuals want to indoctrinate straight children, and so on. Republican leadership undoubtedly pushed her out on to television because she is, as you Brits say, a looker - at least by the standards of Congress.

The call for an investigation into the beliefs of every federal lawmaker, and an exposé of those found wanting in their patriotism, certainly takes us into deeply creepy territory. I would not call Bachmann herself a fascist. Odd as it sounds, to do so would be to grant her far too much credit. For one to embrace an -ism, even a repugnant one, one needs to have read a certain amount of history and political philosophy. Bachmann is just an idiot. She wouldn't know Edmund Burke from Billie Burke (she played the good witch in the Wizard of Oz), and she obviously has no idea that, in her rejection of the two bedrock American principles of separation of church and state and freedom of thought, she is the one who is as anti-American as they come.

But friends, all is not darkness. Bachmann's appearance caused a national uproar. Colin Powell, in endorsing Obama yesterday, said of Bachmann's comments that "we have got to stop this kind of nonsense and pull ourselves together". Her Democratic opponent raised nearly half a million dollars from around the country in just 24 hours, and he now has a chance of beating her.

That would be nice. But let's go back to the big contest. With Bachmann, the lid came off the rightwing id. It will happen many more times over these next two weeks. McCain, now openly using the word "socialist" to describe Obama's proposals (the week after his friend George W Bush took federal control of nine major banks!), and especially Palin have shown every sign of encouraging it. Their goal is to scare Americans about Obama, but moderate, independent voters might well decide that Obama looks a lot less scary than they do.

•Michael Tomasky is editor of Guardian America
 
Independent/UK on Obama competing in The South. Print E-mail

The battle for the Old Confederacy

North Carolina has been a Republican stronghold for decades. So can Barack Obama really overcome the history of racial prejudice in the southern states? Leonard Doyle reports from Raleigh

Monday, 20 October 2008

Carter Wrenn: 'Obama has a chance here'

Leonard Doyle

Carter Wrenn: 'Obama has a chance here'

In the long and bruising campaign for the White House, both presidential candidates have been tip-toeing around the issue of race, fearful that if mishandled it could somehow deliver a fatal electric shock.

The polls suggest that America will elect Barack Obama its first black president in two weeks. But the tidal wave of enthusiasm for him points to him not just winning the White House but capturing two important states of the Old Confederacy, North Carolina and Virginia.

Both have reliably gone Republican during every presidential election for 40 years, and only once since 1948 has Virginia voted to put a Democrat in the White House. On a US electoral map, these are the highest peaks of prejudice the Democrat is poised to overcome. North Carolina, especially, is a place where some of the nastiest race-based campaigns have been fought in modern times. The ground is now shaking under the country club Republicans as the polls give Senator Obama a margin of some 10 percentage points in Virginia and put North Carolina on a knife edge.

For more than 20 years, Carter Wrenn was the most feared political operative in the state. He devised and implemented campaigns for the late Senator Jesse Helms, tapping into the racial fears and prejudices of voters. His TV spots and direct mailings got the demagogue elected to the US Senate time after time.

He says old-fashioned race-baiting would not work this time. It has to be more subtle. "We used race and we probably shouldn't have, no, we shouldn't have," Mr Wrenn said in the soft drawl of a southern gentleman. A history buff with a passion for Winston Churchill, he had a change of heart when he came to appreciate the hurt and pain his race-baiting campaigning had caused to one of his very few African-American friends, an office maintenance man.

"Obama has a chance here," he says between pulls on an early morning cigar, "but if he was Tiger Woods I would be saying that he needs to finish the back nine with six birdies if he is going to take the states."

If the polls are correct and the huge numbers of newly registered voters actually turn out to vote, Mr Wrenn's life's work of building an impenetrable bastion for Republicans in North Carolina could soon be swept away. A defeat here, however narrow for Senator McCain, will be a painful setback for the Republicans. If this state and Virginia go Democratic, Senator Obama has won the White House. But perhaps more important will be the shattering of the Republicans' infamous "southern strategy".

That is the policy perfected by Richard Nixon after the Civil Rights act of 1964 to exploit the racial divisions of the old South as a way of reliably sending Republicans to the White House. "Bill Clinton finally showed you can win the presidency without winning the South," said Ferrel Guillory, professor of politics at the University of North Carolina. "But if Barack Obama becomes the first black president to win the presidency with support from the South, it opens a new era in American politics."

Tensions over race and even fear of violence erupting on the campaign trail have been close to the surface in recent weeks. They prompted John Lewis, the famous black Georgia Democrat and prominent civil rights leader to accuse the McCain campaign of "sowing the seeds of hatred and division" as he recalled the atmosphere fostered by the segregationist governor of Alabama, George Wallace, in the 1960s.

Sarah Palin's accusations that Senator Obama was "palling around with terrorists" brought shouts of "Terrorist" and "Kill him" from her audience. A Republican group distributed offensive anti-Obama literature with stereotypical black America images of a watermelon, barbecue ribs and a bucket of fried chicken.

Even "Joe the Plumber", who got his 15 minutes of fame after being mentioned during the last presidential debate, said all he got from Mr Obama when he asked about the tax he may have to pay was "a tap dance. Almost as good as Sammy Davis Jr".

This weekend, the jagged front line of the election dipped south of the Mason-Dixon line, as both candidates campaigned in Virginia and North Carolina, states where George Bush barely appeared in 2000 and 2004. Senator McCain was there to energise conservatives and independents. But Mr Obama was also in North Carolina, holding enormous rallies and spending vast sums to smother his opponent with a blanket of television spots and paid-for "infomercials".

The last time North Carolina went Democratic was in 1976 when Jimmy Carter narrowly scraped by. And what may soon happen in North Carolina is only now sinking in for Republicans. With an electorate 85 per cent white, as recently as 1990 the state rewarded Jesse Helms with a Senate seat after he used a now-infamous race-baiting television advertisement. Aired only three times, the "white hands" ad showed an unemployed white man ripping up a rejection notice from a company that gave a job to a "less-qualified minority".

Nothing so crude has been employed this time. Rather a huge influx of white and black voters to urban areas of North Carolina has changed the demographics of what was once a predominantly rural white state. Behind the high pillars of the North Carolina Country Club in Raleigh there is agitation at the prospect of a black president. That Mr Obama was born to a black father from Kenya and a white mother from Kansas makes it all the more intolerable for some. Thirty years ago, it would have been illegal for the couple to marry and live in Virginia under the state's "misogyny" laws which banned mixed marriages.

Gary Pearce is a Democratic political consultant and a member of the elegant country club. He described how the air turns blue in the exercise room, as members young and old discuss the unwelcome prospect of an Obama victory. "They refer to black people as 'them'," he said, "and cannot conceive of a black president. One man, a stockbroker said, 'I could never vote for that nigger'. It's really shocking to hear such open prejudice among some of the most powerful people in the state. There are two important things some Southerners need to know about the Civil War:it's over, and we lost."

Nobody believes the racism instilled into generations of rural whites has gone away. "It's still there," said Charlene Williams a black businesswoman who moved from Chicago. "But instead of being a true-blooded Republican state, it has become a melting pot. But just because Jesse Helms has died does not mean those attitudes have gone."

At Ed's Country Market, Pastor Donald McCoy finds himself sitting in front a memorial to the Civil War, complete with guns, swords and Confederate flags. He dismisses it with a wave of his hands and with his omelette growing cold on the plate, he describes his excitement at the prospect of an Obama presidency.

"I already call him President," he said, "and he is going to transform the way this country sees itself. I'm 64 now and I was around in the civil Rights period with Martin Luther King and I can tell you that he made a prophesy that we would get to the promised land and Barack Obama is that prophesy coming to pass."

As for the racism of his fellow North Carolinians, Rev McCoy is optimistic. "Times have changed," he said, "and in this failing economy it doesn't make any difference whether you are white, black or Hispanic but we cannot achieve anything by being divided." New voters, have come to the state attracted, by the "research Triangle" around Duke University. They are urban rather than rural and therefore perfect fodder for the Obama campaign. Even those Republicans who moved to the state are less doctrinaire than their old-style southern cousins.

The McCain campaign has not openly played the race card and despite appeals from supporters to go harder. Senator McCain will not even mention the case of Jeremiah Wright, Mr Obama's controversial former preacher. Instead he is focusing on Bill Ayers, the radical from the 1960s. A voice-over "robocall" tells voters who answer their phones that Obama "has worked closely with domestic terrorist Bill Ayers", whose organisation "killed Americans".

Race-based attacks are off limits but that does not prevent race being used, says Mr Wrenn. "There are two race cards," he says, "One is a no-holds-barred, two-fisted, blunt-edged appeal to race that's hardly ever seen anymore. These days only a desperate politician, or one bent on suicide, plays that race card. The other race card is more subtle. It can be as simple as a candidate having a campaign slogan like, 'He's one of us'. A lot of times that's not racist at all. But other times, subtly, it is.

"Because, just naturally, when folks see even a friend who has a strange accent or a different skin colour or round eyes, they think, 'He's not like me'. Chalk it up to original sin, but that's the way it is."

That is why Mr Wrenn thinks the Republicans will still hold North Carolina. But Virginia he sees as a lost cause, which, if Obama wins, he wins the White House.

Divided state: North Carolina

*North Carolina has a population of nearly nine million, with black people making up 22 per cent.

*A Republican stronghold, it was last won by a Democratic presidential candidate, Jimmy Carter, in 1976.

*Founded by Virginians in 1653, it was among the 13 colonies that fought British rule and signed the Declaration of Independence in 1776.

*It was named after the Latin name for King Charles I, Carolus.

 
 
Photos from Independent/UK Print E-mail
 
This Minn House Race is a common Example. Print E-mail
The success so far of Ashwin Madia, left, symbolizes what Democrats hope to do: extend their territory farther from urban centers. With Middle America feeling the pinch of the economic crisis, it seems to be working in places such as Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, which has been held by Republicans since 1960. A month ago, Republican state Rep. Erik Paulsen, above, led the race.
 
The success so far of Ashwin Madia, left, symbolizes what Democrats hope to do: extend their territory farther from urban centers. With Middle America feeling the pinch of the economic crisis, it seems to be working in places such as Minnesota's 3rd Congressional District, which has been held by Republicans since 1960. A month ago, Republican state Rep. Erik Paulsen, above, led the race. (By Jim Mone -- Associated Press)
 
 
Minn. Candidate a Poster Boy for Democratic Hopes
Former Unknown Leads in Suburbs Long Held by GOP

By Peter Slevin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, October 20, 2008; A04

MINNETONKA, Minn. -- On paper, it makes little sense that Democrat Ashwin Madia is running a close race for Congress in the Minneapolis suburbs. He is a 30-year-old political neophyte challenging a respected Republican statehouse leader for an open seat held by the GOP since 1960.

But Madia is an Iraq war veteran who has turned a combination of economic worry and demographic change into a serious chance of beating state Rep. Erik Paulsen in a closely watched bellwether for Democratic hopes of extending their reach in the suburbs.

Recent polling shows Madia slightly ahead, a reversal of Paulsen's own slim lead a month ago. A lead in a district long considered safe GOP territory typifies a year that looks increasingly likely to turn out big for Democrats in Congress.

Democrats have largely won in the inner suburbs like this one in recent years. They hope a favorable climate -- especially in districts where economic concerns and dissatisfaction with President Bush dominate -- will help them extend that success to outer suburbs, where they have also become more competitive.

Outer-suburban communities "may still be Republican, but some of them are much less Republican than they were, and some of them are outright Democratic," said Ruy Teixeira, a visiting scholar at the Brookings Institution who recently finished a study of battleground states. "These are the kinds of patterns you see all over."

Teixeira cited the Virginia suburbs, where the rise of Democrats in Fairfax County is finding an echo in Loudoun and Prince William counties. He also mentioned Arapahoe and Jefferson counties outside Denver, as well as Franklin County, Ohio, which includes Columbus.

As the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee studied the national map heading into the 2008 campaign cycle, strategists looked to shifts in 2006, where Democrats took nine largely suburban seats from Republicans -- including three near Philadelphia -- and two that combined urban and suburban populations.

This year, the DCCC is concentrating on 10 suburban districts around the country, including Minnesota's 3rd, as well as eight where the suburbs or exurbs are a central part of the mix. Party strategists said the country's economic crisis has shifted the electorate their way.

"We're seeing in the last three or four weeks a lot of these districts are becoming increasingly competitive," said a DCCC staffer who spoke on the condition of anonymity in order to speak candidly, "whereas on the Democratic side, where races have been competitive, they've been competitive throughout."

National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Ken Spain would not discuss the wider trends. Asked for comment yesterday, he said, "Suburban voters will trend toward candidates that offer up real economic solutions, not more of the same failed tax-and-spend policies of the past."

The Paulsen-Madia race will determine who replaces Rep. Jim Ramstad, a moderate nine-term Republican. Paulsen seemed well-positioned with money and contacts -- Ramstad is his campaign chairman. A social conservative and a pragmatic, budget-balancing former Minnesota House majority leader, he is an understated business analyst at Minnesota-based Target Corp.

On the stump, Paulsen, 43, talks about his 14 years in the Minnesota legislature. He discusses his real-world professional career and the 11 countries he visited last year. He mentions his four daughters and his Sunday-morning soccer matches in the local Liberian community.

Madia's introductory campaign literature offers a more modest history: He was born in Boston. He grew up in Plymouth, Minn., and graduated from high school and college nearby. He served as a Marine lawyer in Iraq. He is a now a civil lawyer specializing in "business matters" and intellectual property.

But while that disparity in credentials may normally favor Paulsen, it is helping Madia in a climate in which voters appear to be hungry for something, anything, different.

"Here's a guy who has no government experience," University of Minnesota political scientist Lawrence Jacobs said of Madia. "He literally points to being involved in university student government."

Jacobs described Paulsen as thoughtful and "mature" with a solid record in office, yet what should be assets are turning into liabilities, as "experience becomes a warning sign of 'the same old thing.' People are radically discounting the risk of newcomers. It's like the gravitational pull is being reversed."

If Madia and Paulsen were competing without intense worries about the economy and the direction of the country, political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said, the result would be predictable: "Paulsen wins." Yet he just moved the race into a group of contests tilting Democratic.

Rothenberg sees "greater receptivity" in suburbia to a Democratic message that is "more cautious," with its emphasis on fiscal responsibility, middle-class tax cuts and help for small business.

"When we get to a more neutral environment and we see what the Democratic message is," Rothenberg said, "we will know whether these are real changes or temporary changes."

Madia relied on volunteers to defeat the favorite in the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party nominating convention. When he then showed he could run strongly against Paulsen in a state that moved strongly toward Obama, money poured in.

"No one had ever heard of me before. We did it from the bottom up," Madia said during a late-afternoon break at a Caribou coffee shop, where he looked in desperate need of caffeine but drank nothing.

All but erasing Paulsen's financial advantage, Madia raised nearly $1 million in the third quarter, pushing him above $2 million for the campaign. At last report, the DCCC had committed more than $1.5 million more for television.

"I know if it is a one-on-one fight, I win, no problem," Paulsen said after speaking to the Optimist Club. Almost all of his money has come from Minnesota donors.

When he meets voters, Madia wears a U.S. flag pin on his lapel, just above a Marine Corps pin. At a gathering of 20 elderly voters in a senior center, he mentioned Iraq only after discussing the economy, health care and energy policy.

The war was at the top of voters' concerns in 2006, when the Bush administration's struggles in Iraq were a central factor in Democrats retaking the House and Senate. And when Madia began his race, it was largely on the merits of his war service. But Iraq has virtually disappeared because of the economic crisis.

As recently as a year ago in Washington Post-ABC News polling, twice as many voters said Iraq was their top concern as said so about the economy. But as violence in Iraq eased and news about the U.S. economy darkened, the public's focus shifted. Now, more than half of all voters, 53 percent, call the economy issue No. 1, and only 6 percent highlight the Iraq war as their top voting issue.

"Iraq," said Jacobs, from the University of Minnesota, "has been incinerated as a political issue by the financial 9/11."

 
 
 
Dems see Opportunity in Suburbs/ Exurbs. Print E-mail
About 8,000 people attended a McCain rally Saturday in Woodbridge, one of the "exurbs" that many see as home to the election's most important concentrations of swing voters.
About 8,000 people attended a McCain rally Saturday in Woodbridge,
 
 
One of the "exurbs" that many see as home to the election's most important concentrations of swing voters. (By Marvin Joseph -- The Washington Post)
 
Democrats See Opportunity In Outer Suburbs' Troubles

By Alec MacGillis
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, October 20, 2008; A01

For all the emphasis on Sen. Barack Obama's chances with working-class voters in declining Rust Belt cities, the biggest swing vote in the presidential election is likely to be in outer suburban communities, where Democrats hope to capitalize on economic unease and demographic shifts to overturn traditional Republican strengths.

Republicans have long dominated in the fast-growing exurbs, which President Bush won by an even larger margin in 2004 than in 2000. But Democrats made inroads in these areas in the 2006 congressional elections, part of a broader trend that has seen the party gain among college-educated suburban professionals. And this year, many exurbs that grew rapidly in the past decade are being hit particularly hard by the economic downturn.

These exurbs, home to an increasing share of the electorate, will help decide who wins states such as Florida, North Carolina, Colorado and Nevada, which are emerging as battlegrounds in the final weeks of the election while Republican chances of reclaiming industrial states such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have waned. Nowhere, though, are the exurbs more relevant than they are in Virginia, where Loudoun and Prince William counties are likely to be pivotal.

In 2004, Democratic Sen. John F. Kerry managed to narrowly win Fairfax County, the largest suburb in Northern Virginia, but Bush still carried fast-growing Prince William and Loudoun on his way to an eight-point victory. But over the next two years, Gov. Timothy M. Kaine and Sen. James Webb expanded the Democratic line outward, carrying the two exurban counties in winning their races.

Obama's chances of winning Virginia and its 13 electoral votes depend in part on whether he, too, can carry Prince William and Loudoun, which together grew by 157,000 people in the first five years of this decade. With that growth, the counties have shifted in ways that favor Democrats. Both have diversified, and Loudoun now has rates of educational attainment and household income that far exceed the state average, while its proportion of Republican-leaning working-class voters has fallen.

Sen. John McCain drew an estimated 8,000 people to a rally in Woodbridge on Saturday as his campaign intensified its efforts to compete in Northern Virginia. But interviews with voters and local elected officials and polling data suggest that Obama's prospects are enhanced by the downturn, which was hitting exurban residents hard even before last month's Wall Street meltdown.

Across the country, the housing collapse has been most acute on the suburban fringe. In Prince William, sales are picking up again, but at severely reduced prices -- the median price for detached single-family houses plunged 41 percent in the past year, from $405,000 in September 2007 to $239,900 last month. There were 844 foreclosures last month, up from 256 a year before and 40 in September 2006. Exacerbating the real estate collapse was the spike in gasoline prices, which hit hardest in exurbs where 30-mile commutes are the norm.

It was the oil spike more than anything that led Gary Blake to strongly consider voting for Obama after voting for Bush in 2004. Blake, who lives in a McMansion community near the Potomac River, said fuel costs hurt his pest-control business, which inspects homes as far away as West Virginia. Even now that gas prices have dropped somewhat, Blake sees how things have gone amiss in the number of foreclosed homes on his inspection list.

"I've become more swayed to the left after the last eight years," he said. "In 2004, I was more swayed by the tax stance of the Republicans, and thought it would benefit us more. But I've concluded that was a mistake."

Robert Lang, a demographer at Virginia Tech's Metropolitan Institute in Alexandria, says it is a generalized discontent like Blake's that has increased the Democrats' share of the exurban vote.

In 2004, Democrats won 40 percent of the vote in counties such as Loudoun and Prince William -- or Douglas County outside Denver, Delaware County outside Columbus and St. Charles County outside St. Louis. This group of counties grew 17 percent between 2000 and 2006, to about 22 million people, a far faster rate of growth than in any other type of area.

In 2006, Democrats won 44 percent of the vote in these

places. Obama showed particular strength in exurbs in his primary battle against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton. He won Prince William and Loudoun by wide margins.

Lang explained the Democratic ascendancy by invoking the archetype of "Patio Man," coined by the columnist David Brooks in 2002. Patio Man, as Lang sees it, is typically a middle manager who works in a suburban office park and has a college education and maybe a master's degree. He is a centrist, upset not only about his home's plummeting value but also with the Bush administration's lapses in Iraq and in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Patio Man is also fairly comfortable with the notion of an African American president, because exurbs in places such as Northern Virginia are increasingly diverse. Plus, Lang said, exurban women are not enamored of McCain's choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate, which polls have shown has not gone over well with many educated suburbanites.

"The suburban dweller is saying, 'I've had it, enough is enough, and I'm going to vote for a change of parties that changes everything,' " Lang said. "What's damaged Republicans with Patio Man is the basic incompetence of government. . . . The Democrats don't own these people -- it's about the state of the Republican Party."

To be sure, plenty of exurban residents have been relatively unhurt by the downturn, or have not let it affect their preference for the GOP. A few blocks from Blake's house, on Duckling Place, Rita Ippolito said she and her husband are fairly unscathed by the financial meltdown. Their home's value has dropped and they hope to sell it in the next year, but its value is still well above what they bought it for eight years ago. And they'll be moving to Ohio, where real estate is cheap. And with strong antiabortion convictions, they remain staunch Republicans.

"There have been some mistakes by the Bush administration," she said, but "we believe in our country" and Obama "would go way too far." Ippolito added: "We want to bring back the America we once had, the conservative values."

Scott Lingamfelter, a Republican in the Virginia House of Delegates whose district includes part of Prince William County, noted that many Prince William and Loudoun residents work for the military or for defense contractors and are likely to see McCain as on their side. Small-business owners also may be worried about Obama's plan to raise taxes for people earning more than $250,000, he said. And there are still a fair number of gun owners and hunters on the outer fringes of the exurbs who view Obama as not one of them.

Kaine and Webb were elected when "some Republican moderates got mobile and said, 'I can trust some of these Democrats,' " Lingamfelter said. "But McCain's not going to lose them."

But Democratic pollster Pete Brodnitz sees Obama benefiting from the same dynamic in the exurbs that aided Kaine and Webb, whom Brodnitz advised. While Republicans have focused on disqualifying their opponents -- attacking Obama's association with a former radical, for instance -- Democrats have made a moderate pitch about practical solutions and unifying Virginians, he said.

"People have been hearing a lot of [Obama's message] in different form from other Virginia Democrats, so it's very familiar," Brodnitz said.

Democrats are also benefiting from the growing number of ethnic minorities across Northern Virginia. Hispanic voters remain upset about Republican immigration policies, particularly in Prince William, where county officials launched a crackdown on undocumented residents that has driven many immigrants from the county. And many Asian Americans rallied to the Democrats in 2006, when then-Sen. George Allen (R) called a Democratic campaign worker with South Asian roots "macaca."

The Democrats' ambitions in the exurbs are reflected in Obama's organization, which has six offices in Prince William and Loudoun, and in the four visits Obama and his running mate, Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr., have made to the two counties. McCain has three offices in the counties, and Saturday's visit was his first to Prince William.

"We're working hard. We know we can't take it for granted anymore," said Michael C. May (R), a Prince William County supervisor.

Helping do some canvassing for Obama has been Monica Lewis, a mother of two in Woodbridge who can see the boom and bust all around her. Five of the 70 homes on her cul-de-sac have auction signs out front. The going price for the 20-year-old townhouses has dropped from the mid-$300,000s to $200,000 or lower. About a dozen homes are unoccupied, by Lewis's count, and the vacancy rate is far higher in the sea of bigger, recently built townhouses just to her east.

Lewis, who moved with her husband, a community-college dean, from Norfolk three years ago, said the upheaval in the county makes it hard to gauge its politics. She can barely keep track of who lives on her block, and businesses are closing left and right, particularly Mexican restaurants and businesses reliant on the housing industry.

"The sense that Prince William County is a boomtown with a lot of potential and activity is gone," she said in a follow-up e-mail. "I am hopeful that we will elect Obama . . . but I think it will be very close. With the departure of so many people (renters, immigrants, working citizens), the status quo has returned. The people left standing are clinging to what they have."

 
 
 
Will Military take Powell's Word on Obama Print E-mail

 

Partial  from Planet War discussion -

 

The U.S. military is probably one of the few sectors of society where Obama support flags, and as president the national security neophyte will undoubtedly go through a Clinton-like hazing, particularly if he has the audacity to suggest that the military needs to tighten its belt for the sake of the economy. 

Colin Powell’s endorsement certainly must sting for McCain and the administration, but will it help with the military?  I say not one bit.  The political general has already lost his bond with today’s military, and his very partisan endorsement runs against a pretension on the part of many in uniform that they are above politics.  If would be nice if they were, but they’re not.  The Powell endorsement in fact just muddies these waters.

Peter: I think Powell has more of a bond with the military establishment than Bill suggests, but I generally agree that his endorsement of Obama is not a game changer.  It gives the campaign one more talking point - why should you worry about Obama as commander-in-chief when General Powell has endorsed him? -- but I don't think it is likely to change many people's minds one way or the other.  I think it helps a bit during an Obama transition by reinforcing the imagery of "steady hands on the tiller."  But those positives will have to be weighed against the following likely negative: Powell is now a go-to guy for quotes to second-guess Obama decisions.  The most obvious one will be anything President Obama does on the "don't ask, don't tell" policy so closely associated with General Powell's tenure as Chairman of the JCS.  But on any national security issue, Powell's views are fair game.  I expect that Powell will be a very loyal soldier - he has already proven how loyal he can be - but he also has his own independent views on what should be done.  Just as it is a page 1 story when Powell endorses Obama, it is a page 1 story if-or-when Powell disagrees with an Obama national security decision.

 

 
U of Nebraska cancels Ayers. Print E-mail

 

from LATimes.com BLOG -

 


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Under fire, U of Nebraska cancels speech by Obama friend William Ayers

As much of the media obsessed this weekend about Barack Obama's large numbers -- crowds and dollars -- William Ayers, the controversial '60s radical who helped launch the Democrat's political career in his Chicago South Side living room, popped back up in the news in the Midwest.

It seems the cofounder of the violent Weather UndWeather Underground founder, University of Illinois education professor and friend of Democrat presidential candidate Barack Obama, William Ayers in a Chicago alley posing for a magazine article photo shoot a few years agoerground that bombed public buildings during the Vietnam War was invited as a keynote speaker by the University of Nebraska in Lincoln right after the presidential election next month.

The invitation apparently went out last winter. But news of it broke last week and has been causing considerable buzz and protest online.

Late last week politicians of both parties in Nebraska roundly condemned the Nov. 15 invitation.

Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson urged university officers to reconsider the invitation. "His (Ayers') past involvement in a violent protest group and incendiary comments are not consistent with the agenda of unity that we need in America today," Nelson said.

Gov. Ben Heineman, a Republican, said, "Bill Ayers is a well-known radical who should never have been invited to the University of Nebraska." He added, "our citizens are clearly outraged and want action."

The Omaha World-Herald reported that one prominent group -- the Gilbert M. and Martha H. Hitchcock Foundation, a....

...multimillion-dollar university donor in past years -- threatened to halt all of its donations to the university over the invite, and numerous other donors promised such action if the event proceeded.

Some university teachers warned the Omaha paper that canceling the Ayers speech would hurt the school's academic reputation as an appearance of censorship and make future faculty recruiting more difficult.

Saturday, however, a university spokeswoman announced that the invitation to Ayers, now an education professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago and an Obama neighbor, had been rescinded for the College of Education and Human Sciences centennial celebration for "safety reasons."

She would not elaborate.

Ayers' association with Obama, which included work together on two city education projects in the 1990s, first emerged during the Democratic Party's primary season, when the freshman Illinois Democrat described the unrepentant Ayers merely as an acquaintance whose "despicable" acts occurred during Obama's childhood. He has since said Ayers would play no role in his administration.

The Republican presidential campaign of John McCain has sought to make their relationship a continuing question of Obama's judgment along with his association with others such as Tony Rezko, recently convicted on federal fraud charges.

Despite the cancellation, the Nebraska state auditor, Mike Foley, sent the university a request for detailed information on the proposed event's funding. While the state attorney general, Jon Bruning, called the cancellation decision "good news for the university."

"I don't think there was any good way for the university to disassociate itself with his past," Bruning said.

-- Andrew Malcolm

 

 
Powell looks to HIS Legacy. Print E-mail

Powell’s Endorsement Puts Spotlight on His Legacy

WASHINGTON — Former Secretary of State Colin L. Powell’s endorsement of Senator Barack Obama on Sunday represented his own transformative moment in a lifelong journey through war and politics.

It was not only an embrace of a presidential candidate from the other party, but also an effort to reshape a legacy that he himself considers tainted by his service under President Bush.

The endorsement, which came after months of conversations between Mr. Powell and Mr. Obama on a wide range of foreign and domestic policy issues, made clear Mr. Powell’s dismay at the Republican Party. He said he felt that the party had become too conservative under Mr. Bush, and that Senator John McCain’s campaign was not good for the country or its reputation around the world.

In that sense, his remarks further stirred the brewing debate about the nature of the post-Bush Republican Party.

“I have some concerns about the direction that the party has taken in recent years,” Mr. Powell told Tom Brokaw on “Meet the Press” on NBC as he made his endorsement of Mr. Obama. “It has moved more to the right than I would like to see it.” In recent weeks, Mr. Powell added, “the approach of the Republican Party and Mr. McCain has become narrower and narrower.”

It will be up to the next president, Mr. Powell said, “to fix the reputation that we’ve left with the rest of the world.”

People in both parties debated the impact of Mr. Powell’s endorsement, but on a Sunday morning in Washington the conclusion was that the action revealed less about Mr. Obama and Mr. McCain than about Mr. Powell, who 13 years ago was himself thinking of trying to become president.

In saying he would vote for Mr. Obama over Mr. McCain, Mr. Powell aligned himself squarely against Mr. Bush, who has been counting on a Republican victory next month to see through his strategy of avoiding a rigid timetable for withdrawals in Iraq — the issue, more than any other, on which the president’s legacy will rest.

Mr. Powell’s role in selling the invasion, despite his frequent clashes with other members of Mr. Bush’s team about how to proceed, has also come to dominate his own place in history. In siding with Mr. Obama, who from the start was an opponent of Iraq, he seemed to be making a clear break with the more hawkish elements of the Republican Party and signaling an effort to reshape how he is judged on the war.

One major factor in Mr. Powell’s decision appeared to be Mr. Obama’s careful wooing of the former secretary of state. In recent months the two have had one face-to-face meeting and some half-dozen telephone conversations, all initiated by Mr. Obama.

A friend of Mr. Powell’s said Mr. Obama sought the advice of Mr. Powell before Mr. Obama’s trip in July to Europe and the Middle East, and has also had long discussions with him on Iraq, Iran and North Korea as well as education and health care policy. The two last spoke some two weeks ago about the worldwide economic crisis, the friend said.

In contrast, Mr. McCain met with Mr. Powell, a friend of two decades, in June, and has not spoken to him since, the friend said.

Like Mr. Obama, Mr. Powell has long represented to millions of people around the world the possibilities of the American dream. The son of immigrants from Jamaica who was born in Harlem and reared in the South Bronx, Mr. Powell earned a degree from the City University of New York and then embarked on a rapid rise through the military, perhaps the most integrated institution in American life.

He became a military assistant to Secretary of Defense Caspar W. Weinberger in 1983, national security adviser under President Ronald Reagan in 1986 and chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under the first President Bush during the 1991 Gulf War.

By 1995 he was flirting with the idea of running for president, and a friend said he briefly considered leaving the Republican Party to run as an independent. But his wife, Alma, said she would worry about his safety. Mr. Powell finally announced he would not run in 1996 because it was “a calling that I do not yet hear.”

Mr. Powell had a tumultuous tenure as President Bush’s first-term secretary of state, when he was frequently undercut by Vice President Dick Cheney and Donald H. Rumsfeld, the secretary of defense, in the period before the Iraq war. Although Mr. Powell had major misgivings about the war and what he considered the inadequate number of troops, he not only agreed to the invasion but also made the administration’s case for war in a presentation to the United Nations Security Council in February 2003.

Much of what he said is now known to be based on false information provided by the Central Intelligence Agency. Mr. Powell has been widely criticized for the appearance, including by Mr. Obama, a fact that Mr. Brokaw brought up on Sunday.

Mr. Brokaw read aloud a passage from Bob Woodward’s most recent book, “The War Within,” that quoted former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, a Republican, as saying that Mr. Powell was “the one guy who could have perhaps prevented” the war from happening.

Mr. Powell, who friends say remains angry about his time in the Bush administration, briskly responded that “it was not a correct assessment by anybody that my statements or my leaving the administration would have stopped it.”

The fissures within the Bush administration and the fractious Republican foreign policy establishment have in the meantime played out in the 2008 presidential campaign. In many ways, Mr. Powell’s endorsement reflected the rift between the so-called pragmatists, many of whom have come to view the Iraq war or its execution as a mistake, and the neoconservatives, a competing camp whose thinking played a pivotal role in building the case for war.

Mr. Powell, who is of the pragmatist camp and has been critical of the Bush administration’s conduct of the war, was said by friends in recent months to be disturbed by some of the neoconservatives who have surrounded Mr. McCain as foreign policy advisers in his presidential campaign.

The McCain campaign’s top foreign policy aide is Randy Scheunemann, who was a foreign policy adviser to former Senators Trent Lott and Bob Dole and who has longtime ties to neoconservatives. In 2002, Mr. Scheunemann was a founder of the hawkish Committee for the Liberation of Iraq and was an enthusiastic supporter of Ahmad Chalabi, the Iraqi exile and Pentagon favorite, who was viewed with suspicion and distaste at the State Department during Mr. Powell’s tenure.

Although Mr. Powell had some warm words for Mr. McCain on Sunday — he said that he admired him and that he would make a good president — friends say that Mr. Powell has felt cut out by Mr. McCain’s campaign foreign policy circle and concerned that Mr. McCain speaks too off the cuff about national security and has not taken the time to do the deeper homework required of a presidential candidate.

In addition, a friend said that when Mr. Powell met with Mr. McCain at Mr. McCain’s Arlington, Va., apartment in June, Mr. McCain spoke almost exclusively to him about the war in Iraq and the increase in troop strength, or surge, that Mr. McCain had strongly supported. Mr. Obama, who met with Mr. Powell at Mr. Powell’s Alexandria, Va., office, discussed a broader range of issues and actively solicited Mr. Powell’s expertise, the friend said.

Mr. Powell’s endorsement was such a powerful break from his past that Mr. Brokaw asked if he anticipated a role in an Obama administration, perhaps as an ambassador at large to Africa or in some role in Middle East peace negotiations.

Mr. Powell, in the practiced language of an old Washington hand, replied, “I served 40 years in government, and I’m not looking forward to a position or an assignment. Of course, I have always said if a president asks you to do something, you have to consider it.”
 
RasmussenReports.com - Obama +4 Print E-mail
General Election Match-Up History

See all recent Presidential Election Polls
Analysis of Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

 

McCain

Obama

Spread

10/20/2008

46%

50%

Obama +4

10/19/2008

45%

51%

Obama +6

10/18/2008

45%

50%

Obama +5

10/17/2008

46%

50%

Obama +4

10/16/2008

46%

50%

Obama +4

10/15/2008

45%

50%

Obama +5

10/14/2008

45%

50%

Obama +5

10/13/2008

45%

50%

Obama +5

10/12/2008

45%

51%

Obama +6

10/11/2008

45%

52%

Obama +7

10/10/2008

45%

50%

Obama +5

10/09/2008

45%

50%

Obama +5

10/08/2008

45%

51%

Obama +6

 
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